Author Archives: admin

Experimental data uploaded, new page

I have added a page entitled ‘Bayes and decline‘ that will deal with the more technical details of the decline effect. In particular, it will explain why I regard the phenomenon as only explainable using a Bayesian approach. I’ve also updated the Downloads page by adding an Excel spreadsheet with some probability experiments I ran […]

Jonah Lehrer reports on trouble in science (again)

There is a new blog entry by Jonah Lehrer, “How Does Prozac Work?” (Nov 17, find it here) that touches on the decline effect in pharmaceuticals. It’s not good news. And in a strange way it is stressing me out personally. First Lehrer discusses the failure of a promising new anti-depressant drug, designated GSK372475, from […]

Jonathan Schooler interviewed by CMN

The Conscious Media Network has released an interview with Jonathan Schooler (here) about his work on the decline effect. Be warned, the CMN is pretty eclectic and ‘alternative’. They feature interviews about David Icke, conspiracies, UFO’s, and natural foods, among other things. The interviewer’s perspective on the decline effect, not surprisingly, was that it is […]

Plans for publishing The Decline Effect

Publication of The Decline Effect has taken far longer than I originally hoped. In early 2010 I was on the verge of signing a contract with a major publisher, when the slowing economy forced them to withdraw their offer (and cancel most of the new book line it was to have been a part of). […]

About forensic auditing and CAAT

Everyone should be interested in the decline effect. It affects every scientific field, and has practical implications for every profession. But of course to really make it useful for each profession, we have to talk about specifics. Out of those specifics will come new tools. Since the spring I have been preoccupied with one particular […]

New climate papers I am planning

Climate science doesn’t necessarily pay very well. Even Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the IPCC, doesn’t get paid anything for doing that job. (You may have heard allegations in the blogosphere that he makes huge fortunes on the side, but after an outside audit by KPMG showed that he didn’t, the Daily Telegraph issued an apology.) […]

What the critics aren’t saying about ‘Pot Lid’

When someone proposes that an entire science is radically wrong, as I am doing with climate models of greenhouse warming, there are certain basic points that should come up somewhere in the rebuttal. First, is the claim novel? If so, it generally deserves credit on that score, even if it is wrong. On the other […]

Version 2.0 of ‘Pot Lid’

As promised, I have posted the updated and expanded version 2.0 of ‘Pot Lid’. It corrects some minor errors and adds several pages of new information. Here are some highlights: — There is now a section defining the process of air column density adjustment (ACDA) and explaining in more detail why it is not modeled […]

Let the incredulity begin!

I have begun circulating the ‘Pot Lid’ essay in the blogosphere, and I find the early results very encouraging. Warwick Hughes (here) gave me a positive mention which has been very helpful in securing readers. I had exchanges in comments on the blogs of Judith Curry and Steve Easterbrook which were also helpful, even though […]

Version 1.1 of ‘Pot Lid’ essay is now available

Here are some of the highlights of Version 1.1, uploaded today: — It has one more graph to further illustrate the section on water vapor feedback. — It drops a brief section dealing with modeling philosophy, and combines two sections on the virial theorem into one. — Certain issues relating to lapse rates have been […]