I have added a page entitled ‘Bayes and decline‘ that will deal with the more technical details of the decline effect. In particular, it will explain why I regard the phenomenon as only explainable using a Bayesian approach.
I’ve also updated the Downloads page by adding an Excel spreadsheet with some probability experiments I ran several years ago. At the moment there are only two experiments, one using cards, one involving a slot machine simulator. I plan to add more later, as I find time to clean up and organize all my data files.