Probability

The Decline Effect focuses very heavily on empirical case studies from fields like economics, ecology, epidemiology, culture, and so on. This seems appropriate to me as most people are unaware even that so many unexplained decline curves exist. We must begin with a fund of empirical examples, before theorizing and generalizing.

For those who want more, I am planning a second book articulating a theory of nonlinear probability. Posts in this section of the blog deal with theory issues and the content of that (partly written) book.

As a small first installment, I have uploaded my slides for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings, August 2010, in Vancouver, B.C.

These lay out (alas, in very brief fashion) the case for the decline effect. They are far from being an ideal introduction to the theoretical issues, but given the delays in publishing the book, so far they are the only formal, published material I have released.

There were about 90 people present, pretty good for 8:30 am on a Monday. There was plenty of interest and the session was judged a success by chair Milo Schield and the other four speakers who appeared. Many thanks to everyone, especially to Milo.

Here is the PowerPoint slide set:

Probability in Decline v1.0