The ‘Pot Lid’ hypothesis

The paper (now in version 2.1) is written for everyone, laymen and professionals alike. The first part presents the basic argument, which is that the models used to forecast future global temperatures have not dealt correctly with density shifts. Once density shifts are taken into account, the projected warming to be expected from a doubling of atmospheric CO2 is not 1.5-4.5 degrees C, but a much more manageable 0.4-1.5 degrees C.

The rest of the paper attempts to explain why density shifts could have been overlooked in more than 50 years of climate modeling. At the end I briefly explain how a theorem used in astrophysics, the virial theorem, may be applicable to climate problems.

See ‘Why I Wrote ‘Pot Lid’ for more on the origins of this paper.

Pot Lid Sep 2011 v2.1