Bayes and decline

This page has several objectives.

First, it will provide a technical description of the decline process, to supplement the information contained in The Decline Effect. This hasn’t been a major priority with the book itself still in final edit, but I have been prompted by discussions with readers of the blog to make a start.

The other main objective will be to introduce interested readers to Bayesian statistics, and attempt to clarify the place of The Decline Effect in the perennial Bayesian-versus-frequentist conflict.