Tag Archives: Decline Effect

A recent news story about decline in politics

In the Dec 28, 2010 issue of the National Post newspaper, there was an article by Megan O’Toole about the shortening ‘shelf life’ of Canadian provincial governments, and in particular the shortening reigns of individual premiers. The story is available at: National Post: The year in ideas: Shrinking tenures Political scientists have noted this trend […]

At last, some serious discussion about decline

It is perhaps still too soon to say — since the New Yorker came out on Monday and this is just Thursday — but I think that the zeitgeist is finally turning to serious consideration of the decline effect. Which is great news for me, and for people like Jonathan Schooler. First, let me explain […]

New Yorker article

I’ve had a number of friends tell me about the article in the New Yorker by Jonah Lehrer, ‘The Truth Wears Off,’ about declines in a number of scientific fields. I’m in a mad rush today so I can’t do much more than note that I’ve seen it, and that yes, he’s talking about many […]

JSM 2010 paper is available for download

See the page under Probability.

Fixed the sample chapter again . . .

There were some problems with the security settings. Also I updated some graphs with the latest Web traffic data for my main example. This should be the last time I tinker with the chapter. Coming soon, the completed papers on nonlinear probability and global warming.

Sample chapter from The Decline Effect

. . . is now up on a separate page. This is Chapter 17, one of the longest chapters in the book, but I think one of the most accessible for someone who isn’t sure if this book is for them. UPDATE Nov 14, 2011: Some time ago, I changed the sample chapter to Chapter […]

The progress of this blog so far . . .

. . . has been an illustration of the maximum entropy principle. First there  was a single post. Then was a long stretch of time (several months) with very little activity. I logged in from time to time but did little more than sigh and say, “Not right now.” But at last, in the past […]

Blog Launch

W elcome to The Decline Effect Blog! This blog is about applications of the maximum entropy principle, developed starting in 1957 by Edwin Jaynes. The MEP has an extraordinarily wide range of application — much wider even than most writers in the field realize. Initially the blog will focus on two items. One is my […]